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Is Caruana a strong favorite to win the Candidates tournament?

"Caruana is the one that has been closer to snatch it from Carlsen"

  • He missed a forced checkmate. If he had won that game, he could have drawn the remaining games and be World Champion.
"Caruana is the one that has been closer to snatch it from Carlsen" * He missed a forced checkmate. If he had won that game, he could have drawn the remaining games and be World Champion.

Caruana and Nakamura snecked up so hard they're complete surprise bags

Caruana and Nakamura snecked up so hard they're complete surprise bags

@tpr said ^

"Caruana is the one that has been closer to snatch it from Carlsen"

  • He missed a forced checkmate. If he had won that game, he could have drawn the remaining games and be World Champion.

Curious, was Carlsen's WC match with Fabi or Karjakin more difficult for him?

@tpr said [^](/forum/redirect/post/11U4hJkw) > "Caruana is the one that has been closer to snatch it from Carlsen" > * He missed a forced checkmate. If he had won that game, he could have drawn the remaining games and be World Champion. Curious, was Carlsen's WC match with Fabi or Karjakin more difficult for him?

"was Carlsen's WC match with Fabi or Karjakin more difficult for him?"

  • About the same. Karjakin won and lost a classical game. Caruana drew all classical games, but could have won one.
"was Carlsen's WC match with Fabi or Karjakin more difficult for him?" * About the same. Karjakin won and lost a classical game. Caruana drew all classical games, but could have won one.

I had seen on social media that Karjakin recently updated his status as being in live ratings again, but I'm not sure if that means he is returning to professional competition.

https://x.com/i/status/2027679851222536214

I had seen on social media that Karjakin recently updated his status as being in live ratings again, but I'm not sure if that means he is returning to professional competition. https://x.com/i/status/2027679851222536214

"Karjakin" * refused to play if not under the Russian flag. As the Russian flag has now been un-banned, he can play.

"Karjakin" * refused to play if not under the Russian flag. As the Russian flag has now been un-banned, he can play.

One way to look at it is to imagine Nordibek Abdusattorov or Vincent Keymer or anyone else who thinks that they've maybe got a shot at winning the Candidates in 2028. Who would they least like to be facing in a Championship match if they do? And I think Fabi has to be the scary one, because he's been consistently very hard to beat for a long time and it feels like he's still going to be very hard to beat a few years down the line.

One way to look at it is to imagine Nordibek Abdusattorov or Vincent Keymer or anyone else who thinks that they've maybe got a shot at winning the Candidates in 2028. Who would they least like to be facing in a Championship match if they do? And I think Fabi has to be the scary one, because he's been consistently very hard to beat for a long time and it feels like he's still going to be very hard to beat a few years down the line.

"Nordibek Abdusattorov"

  • He should be in the Candidates' Tournament, so there is something wrong with the qualification procedure.

"he's been consistently very hard to beat"

  • Drawing is not enough to win a World Championship match, and even less to win a Candidates' Tournament.
"Nordibek Abdusattorov" * He should be in the Candidates' Tournament, so there is something wrong with the qualification procedure. "he's been consistently very hard to beat" * Drawing is not enough to win a World Championship match, and even less to win a Candidates' Tournament.

His form at the America Cup isn't that convincing and he lost matches to So and Aronian.
People tend to forget that when he won the Candidates tournament in 2018 he was actually ranked 5th in the lineup. Being ranked #2 this time (or #1 if you discount the largely inactive Nakamura) doesn't mean he is a strong favourite. There is always someone who has worked very hard and is in top form at the candidates although they are lower rated.

His form at the America Cup isn't that convincing and he lost matches to So and Aronian. People tend to forget that when he won the Candidates tournament in 2018 he was actually ranked 5th in the lineup. Being ranked #2 this time (or #1 if you discount the largely inactive Nakamura) doesn't mean he is a strong favourite. There is always someone who has worked very hard and is in top form at the candidates although they are lower rated.

@morphyms1817 said ^

I had seen on social media that Karjakin recently updated his status as being in live ratings again, but I'm not sure if that means he is returning to professional competition.

https://x.com/i/status/2027679851222536214

FIDE apologized for the mistake and removed Karjakin from the live ratings.

@morphyms1817 said [^](/forum/redirect/post/Li04L8Uf) > I had seen on social media that Karjakin recently updated his status as being in live ratings again, but I'm not sure if that means he is returning to professional competition. > > https://x.com/i/status/2027679851222536214 FIDE apologized for the mistake and removed Karjakin from the live ratings.