How Does Magnus Win Top-Level Tournaments So Consistently?
How can we play more like him?
My Realization
Have you ever felt nervous playing an endgame against your opponent in an over-the-board game? I certainly have. However, in the chess era we are currently in, endgames are not the top priority of many chess players. After putting some thought into it, I realized something. In many cases, the most dominant chess player was also the best endgame player.
Ever since the romantic era of chess ended, there have been Grandmasters who can outplay their opponents out of an equal endgame. From Capablanca to Carlsen, these endgame masters were also the most dominant/consistent chess player. This is because unlike sharp attackers, endgame masters rarely lose games. This is simply due to the style. It is easy to imagine why the best endgame players infrequently lose. They trade down the pieces and play a risk-free game from there on.
Of course, in a time where engines are insanely strong and opening recourses are so accessible, endgames are often understudied. Everyone looking to improve their chess must have reasonable opening knowledge and decent calculation, but endgames are where you can step above your peers. I analyzed about 100 of Magnus Carlsen's games from when he was at his peak rating, and the way in which he won most of his games.
The Stats
I created a database of Magnus Carlsen's games from Chessbase. When he was at his peak rating, he scored 42 wins, 42 draws, and 16 losses against an average rating a bit higher than 2740. This wasn't shocking for me, knowing that Magnus was and still is winning tournaments left and right, but it still was fascinating that he can score great results with such consistency. Of course, this made me wonder how he could perform so well. If you think that there is no way you would get so many draws with lower-rated players, check out this great video by Noel Studer: The "Must-Win" Trap: How To Play Against Lower Rated Players. (If this counts as a referral link and you are a mod, please message me so I know to fix this.)
Another interesting thing I noticed about Carlsen's games is that he did not rush to win the game. He would take his time and not fear going into an even endgame where he has to utilize a slight advantage, if he has one, to outplay his opposition from a position that should end in a draw. To show that Magnus voluntarily goes into endgames, I have displayed the number of moves in the same 42 victories that I counted earlier. 10-19 Moves: 1 ................ 20-29 Moves: 5 ............... 30-39 Moves: 11 ............... 40-49 Moves: 9 ............... 50-59 Moves: 6 ............... 60-69 Moves: 6 ............... 70+ Moves: 4
These numbers do not show it all though. Most of the games that ended in the 30s were 37-39 moves. Also, 3 of the 4 70+ move games were longer than 90 moves. Anyways, these stats show that Magnus clearly has a preference for playing long, low-risk endgames. Now, I will show some of the games he played.
The Games
The following games will show the style of Magnus and how fearless he is going into equalish endgames, even against lower-rated players (everyone).
How He Wins
This game where Carlsen beats former world #2, Wesley So, is a nice example of how even in an even position, Magnus is still able to generate winning chances and cause his opponents to blunder.
Here is another game:
In both of these games, Magnus made 2775+ players look like they had never studied endgames before. Yet I struggle to beat a ~2000 Fide-rated player in a slightly better endgame (If I do). After seeing these games, I wondered why this doesn't always work. So, I decided to look at some games where his opponent defended and was able to hold a draw.
When the Opponent Defends Well
Sometimes, Carlsen's opponent will defend well and earn a draw. Here is an example:
The next example is a case of Carlsen's opponent playing well with the white pieces and reaching an endgame where they have winning chances, even against Magnus Carlsen.
In the last game, his opponent got a seemingly promising position. Magnus defended it easily and never allowed any real chances. After viewing and analyzing the games I have shown above, it was becoming clear to me that Magnus has a solid playing style, but if he has any single plus in the position, he is going to press very hard and really make his opponent earn their draw (If they got one). He does not play into very complex positions nor does he play into long, but important opening theory. This made me wonder: How can someone beat him?
Does He Ever Lose?
Yes, everyone will lose a game eventually. I wanted to see games where his opponent outplayed him. Not a blitz game where Magnus just made a clear blunder under time pressure. The first example shows that under pressure; everyone makes bad decisions. It also shows that while he dominates most endgames, calculations could be missed by anyone, even Magnus.
The second example game shows how Fabiano Caruana exploited Magnus's biggest weakness, opening preparation.
I showed two cases of Magnus losing, but it is important to remember that he only lost 17/100 over-the-board games (This even includes blitz!) in the time span I was looking at. He won 42/100 games. Now with more experience, Magnus might not play a risky late-opening choice as he did against Fabi in the first game. But in the second game, Fabi out prepared him. This could always happen. So, even though it is a rarity, Magnus does lose games. The best way to try to beat a player like Magnus is to out prepare him, then reach a sharp position where anybody could miss something.
How We Can Be More Like Magnus
How can you play more like Magnus?
Opening Choice
His most common opening choices didn't particularly surprise me because of all the games I have seen him play. As white, he plays 1.e4 most frequently, often leading to a Spanish Game or an Open Sicilian. He also plays the Queen's Gambit a lot. As black, he plays the Nimzo-Indian Defense and the Queens Gambit Declined as his main opening response to 1.d4. When his opponent plays 1.e4, he mainly plays 1.e5, leading to a Berlin Defense or a Breyer Variation. He also plays the Sicilian Sveshnikov a lot. He plays a lot of solid openings as expected from someone with his playing style. But the Sicilian Sveshnikov somehow (From the 2018 World Championship) got thrown into his repertoire. Basically, do not choose an opening that leads to a forced draw, but also not something that contains super-sharp play. The reason for this is because you have to give yourself enough room to imbalance the game, but you must also make it to an endgame without losing in the middlegame first.
How To Practice What He Is Best At
First of all, you must know how to win most theoretical endgames. This is so you will feel comfortable forcing a theoretical win, even if you know it is not an easy process (Queen vs. Rook + f-pawn and other tough endgames). There are plenty of books and other resources on this (I am also planning on making a blog about the most important ones).
In addition, you must practice finding the best plans and moves in imbalanced endgames. This is the step that allows Magnus to take the advantage in most of his games. You can practice this simply by solving endgame exercises and reviewing Magnus's games. Once you want to test yourself, try to find the same moves/plans as Magnus played in his games.
You might think this is it, now you will become a much better endgame player. But in reality, this is only half of the battle. If you were paying attention, you will have noticed that I said to practice becoming better at playing Imbalanced Endgames. You must create this imbalance in the middlegame or early-endgame if you want to reach an imbalanced endgame. This is just as hard and requires just as much practice as getting better at playing imbalanced endgames. Again, this is something that can also be practiced my watching top-level games and trying to find the same plans. There are also probably some chess books on creating imbalances. But all of this will also take experience. The more games you practice and analyze, the better you will become at these skills. Once you have practiced all of this, you will be winning many games and likely become a very strong player.
Conclusion
I myself am trying to improve at this as I am no endgame master. I have created a team that I would like to host thematic endgame tournaments. My goal is to make it easier for any player to practice their endgames without needing a training partner or coach (These are great ways to improve if possible). Please join it: Endgame Improvers • lichess.org
Lastly, I am very grateful for you spending the time to read this. I really hope you learned something or enjoyed reading about this topic. Please let me know in the blog forum what you learned or found interesting. Also, tell me if you think there were any mistakes or things you could add on and what you think my next blog topic should be.